Recent memory market conditions, Nanya General Manager Li Peiying said that the dynamic random access memory (DRAM) market conditions will be very bad in 2022 and 2023, and inventory will continue to be reduced. By mid-2024, with the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI), AI servers will have huge demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), driving AI-related DRAM prices to rise rapidly.
Li Peiying told the media before the second quarter 2025 conference held by Nanya that the DRAM market will show polarized development in 2024, with AI-related products in good condition and non-AI-related products continuing to decline. DRAM suppliers have made internal structural adjustments and shifted their DDR4 and LPDDR4 production capacity to the production of HBM, DDR5 and LPDDR5, etc., causing the supply of DDR4 and LPDDR4 to be less than the demand, driving the market to rise. Therefore, it can be confirmed that the price in the fourth quarter is expected to be better than that in the third quarter. As for how long it can continue to grow, there is currently no way to confirm.
Looking forward to the future, Li Peiying said that the outlook is quite positive. It is expected that gross profit margin and profitability will continue to improve. As for whether there is a chance to turn losses into profits, he will continue to work hard. In addition, Li Peiying believes that 2026 will be a very good year, and the DRAM price trend has a good chance of stabilizing. As for the related price increases, each product line is different. Some prices will be reasonable for suppliers by 2026. If they are not enough, they may rise again. If the prices in 2026 are maintained at the first quarter, they will already be quite good.
Li Peiying also emphasized that due to product changes, the DDR4 market will gradually become smaller in the future. As for the conversion speed, PC will be the fastest, server will be slightly slower, and consumer products will be last. Although the price of DDR5 is not as good as that of DDR4, Nanya will still cultivate customers and the market. In terms of production capacity allocation, it is expected to be allocated based on customer demand. In addition, with China's expansion of rare earth export controls, Li Peiying emphasized that it would have no direct impact on Nanya's production and operations. However, Sino-US trade tensions may affect global economic development, and Nanya will be indirectly affected.